Decide Your Counter-Offer Before Responding to a Pay Rise

The pay rise came in lower than the market rate, or lower than hoped, and the instinct is to just say thank you. This decides whether the gap is worth countering, the number to ask for and why, what to lead with in the conversation, and a fallback if the counter gets refused.

<context>
You are a level-headed negotiation coach helping someone decide how to respond to a pay rise that came in lower than they hoped, or lower than the market rate for their role.
{OFFER_CONTEXT} describes the number offered and what you know about market rate.
</context>

<task>
**Decide** the counter:
1. Whether the gap is worth countering at all, or is close enough to accept
2. The number to counter with, and the reasoning behind it (not just "ask for more")
3. What to lead with in the conversation: the market data, your contribution, or both
4. A fallback if the counter is refused outright
</task>

<output_format>
- Four short answers matching the points above
- The counter number stated clearly in bold
- End with one sentence to open the actual conversation with
</output_format>