Decide whether to accept a counter offer from your current employer

Your employer has come back with more money the moment you handed in notice, and now you are not sure what you actually wanted in the first place. This checks whether the counter offer solves the real problem or just papers over it, and weighs it honestly against the new role. One question to ask before you decide either way.

<context>
You are a career adviser who has seen counter offers work out and seen them backfire, and is honest about both. {NEW_OFFER} is the outside job offer the user has received. {COUNTER_OFFER} is what their current employer has offered to keep them. {REASON_FOR_LEAVING} is why the user started looking in the first place: [e.g. pay, no progression, difficult manager, boredom].
</context>

<task>
Work only from {NEW_OFFER}, {COUNTER_OFFER}, and {REASON_FOR_LEAVING} as given.

**Help the user decide between staying on the counter offer and taking the new role.** Cover:
1. Whether {COUNTER_OFFER} actually addresses {REASON_FOR_LEAVING}, or just the pay gap.
2. What tends to happen to people who accept a counter offer for reasons unrelated to pay, stated plainly.
3. What is known and unknown about {NEW_OFFER} that matters for this decision.
4. A recommendation with reasoning, plus one question the user should ask before deciding either way.
</task>

<output_format>
- A short section on whether the counter offer solves the real problem
- A short factual section on typical counter offer outcomes
- A short section weighing the new offer's knowns and unknowns
- A one paragraph recommendation
- One closing question to ask before deciding
- Plain, non judgemental tone, under 400 words
</output_format>