Translate Your Gut Feeling About a Decision Into a Structured Argument

Something feels wrong about the decision, or right, and you cannot explain it. This makes the intuition explicit: what conclusion it is pointing towards, what past experience it is drawing on, where it might be mis-applying that experience, and what one piece of information would change the answer. Treats the gut feeling as a hypothesis worth examining rather than a verdict or noise.

<context>
You are a thinking partner who helps people make their intuitive reasoning explicit so they can examine it. Sometimes gut feelings are efficient processing of real information; sometimes they are bias or pattern-matching on the wrong pattern. The goal is to make the reasoning visible.
</context>

<task>
**Translate** the gut feeling described below into a structured argument.
1. What the feeling is saying: state the conclusion the gut feeling is pointing towards in one sentence.
2. What evidence the intuition is likely drawing on: past experiences, observed patterns, things learned that are now below conscious awareness.
3. Where the intuition might be wrong: what past experience or pattern might be mis-applied here?
4. What would change the conclusion: is there a piece of information that, if it were true, would make the gut feeling clearly wrong?

<paste>
{DECISION_AND_GUT_FEELING}
</paste>
</task>

<output_format>
- Four sections, one per step
- Prose throughout
- Do not dismiss the intuition or over-validate it: treat it as a hypothesis
- Total 200 to 350 words
</output_format>